Terminology
Sports betting terminology everyone should know.
What is action?
Action refers to any wager placed on a sporting event. When you "have action" on a game, it means you've placed a bet on it. The term can also refer to the total amount wagered on a game or event.
Types of Action
- Live action: Bets that are currently active and pending
- Getting action: Successfully placing a bet at a sportsbook
- Action bet: A bet that stands regardless of circumstances (like a pitcher change in baseball)
Sportsbooks track total action to manage their risk and adjust lines accordingly.
What are alternate lines?
Alternate lines allow bettors to wager on different point spreads or totals than the standard line, with adjusted odds to reflect the changed probability.
How It Works
Standard line: Chiefs -7 (-110) Alternate lines:
- Chiefs -3.5 (-200) - Easier to cover, worse odds
- Chiefs -10.5 (+150) - Harder to cover, better odds
When to Use Alternate Lines
- When you're confident in a blowout or close game
- To build same-game parlays
- When the standard line doesn't offer value
- To hedge existing bets
Alternate lines are available for spreads, totals, and player props at most sportsbooks.
What is arbitrage betting?
What is arbitrage betting? We'll answer this question in three different ways.
The Easy answer
Arbitrage betting is creating a mathematical advantage that guarantees the bettor takes home a profit no matter the outcome of an event.
The complex answer
Arbitrage betting involves hunting for opposite outcomes in the same event at multiple sportsbooks and only betting when those outcomes imply less than 100 percent probability.
The example answer
Let's say that the San Francisco 49ers are facing the Philadelphia Eagles. DraftKings has moneyline odds of 49ers (-120) and Eagles (+100), while FanDuel has odds of 49ers (+115) and Eagles (-105). The total implied probabilities of DraftKings' odds for the Eagles (+100) and FanDuel's odds for the 49ers (+115) is 96.51 percent, which means that there's a 3.49 percent margin on the 100 percent total probability that exists for every scenario. A $100 wager at +100 odds would result in a $200 payout, as would $93.02 wager at +115 odds would also pay $200. So, a bettor that wagers $193.02 would win $6.98 no matter which team wins.
Conclusion
Arbitrage betting inherently comes with lower potential profit margins, but it is a mathematically guaranteed way to win every single time.
What is Against the Spread (ATS)?
ATS stands for "Against the Spread" and refers to how a team performs relative to the point spread, not just whether they win or lose. A team's ATS record shows how often they cover the spread.
Example
If the Chiefs are 8-4 ATS, they've covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games. This is different from their straight-up record (wins vs losses).
Why ATS Matters
ATS records help bettors identify teams that:
- Consistently outperform expectations (good ATS teams)
- Are overvalued by the public (poor ATS teams)
- Perform well in specific situations (home, road, favorites, underdogs)
What is a backdoor cover?
A backdoor cover occurs when a team covers the spread with a late, often meaningless score when the game's outcome is already decided. It's called "backdoor" because the cover came through an unexpected route.
Example
- Spread: Eagles -7.5
- Score with 2 minutes left: Eagles 28, Giants 14 (Eagles up 14)
- Giants score a garbage-time touchdown: Eagles 28, Giants 21
- Final margin: 7 points
- Result: Giants cover +7.5 via backdoor
Why It Happens
- Teams play soft prevent defense
- Losing team scores meaningless points
- Garbage time plays don't affect the winner but affect the spread
Backdoor covers are frustrating for favorites bettors but a gift for underdogs.
What is bad beat?
A loss in a game you looked likely to win.
What is bankroll?
Total money set aside for betting.
What is a book or bookie?
A "book" is short for sportsbook—an establishment that accepts wagers on sporting events. A "bookie" traditionally refers to an individual who takes bets, often in illegal contexts, though the term is sometimes used casually for any betting operation.
Types of Books
- Legal sportsbooks: Licensed operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM
- Retail sportsbooks: Physical locations in casinos
- Offshore books: Online sportsbooks operating outside US jurisdiction
- Local bookies: Unlicensed individuals taking bets (illegal in most areas)
What Books Do
Books set odds, accept wagers, manage risk, and pay out winning bets. They profit from the vig (juice) built into the odds.
What is buying points?
Buying points allows bettors to move the point spread in their favor by paying additional juice. Each half-point typically costs extra vig.
Example
- Standard: Bills -3 (-110)
- Buy half point: Bills -2.5 (-120)
- Buy full point: Bills -2 (-130)
When Buying Points Makes Sense
Buying points is most valuable around key numbers in football:
- 3: Most common margin of victory (field goal)
- 7: Second most common (touchdown)
Buying from -3.5 to -3 or +2.5 to +3 can be profitable due to how often games land on these numbers.
When to Avoid
Don't buy points away from key numbers. Paying -130 to move from -5.5 to -5 rarely provides enough value.
What is chalk?
The favorite.
What is a circled game?
A circled game is one where the sportsbook has reduced betting limits. The term comes from the old practice of physically circling games on betting boards to indicate restrictions.
Why Games Get Circled
- Injury uncertainty: Key player's status unknown
- Weather concerns: Outdoor games with developing conditions
- Unusual circumstances: COVID issues, team emergencies
- Sharp action: Heavy betting from professional bettors
- Lineup changes: Late scratches or unexpected starters
What It Means for Bettors
- Lower maximum bet amounts
- Lines may move more frequently
- Sportsbooks are uncertain about the "true" line
- Often indicates valuable information is pending
Once uncertainty clears, limits typically return to normal.
What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
Closing Line Value measures whether you bet at better odds than the final line before a game starts. Consistently beating the closing line is the strongest indicator of a profitable bettor.
Example
- You bet Chiefs -3 (-110) on Monday
- The line closes at Chiefs -4.5 (-110) on Sunday
- You have positive CLV of 1.5 points
Why CLV Matters
The closing line is considered the most efficient because:
- All information has been factored in
- Sharp money has moved the line
- It's the market's best estimate of true probability
Studies show bettors who consistently beat the closing line profit long-term, regardless of short-term results. It's how sportsbooks identify sharp bettors.
What is contrarian betting?
Contrarian betting means wagering against popular public opinion. When the majority of bettors favor one side, contrarians bet the other way.
The Theory
The public tends to:
- Overvalue favorites and popular teams
- Chase recent winners
- Bet based on emotion, not analysis
- Inflate lines on primetime games
Sportsbooks adjust lines to balance action, potentially creating value on the unpopular side.
When Contrarian Works Best
- Heavy public action on favorites (70%+ on one side)
- Primetime NFL games with casual bettors
- Popular teams (Cowboys, Lakers, Yankees)
- Teams on winning or losing streaks
Caution
Being contrarian for its own sake isn't profitable. The goal is finding value, not just betting against the crowd.
What is cover?
Beat the spread (e.g., win by more than the point spread).
What is DFS in sports betting?
DFS, or Daily Fantasy Sports, are contests where players build a fantasy team of real-world athletes and compete based on those players' statistical performances in actual games.
How it works
Players enter paid or free contests, draft teams under a salary cap, and earn points based on player stats. The highest-scoring entries win prizes.
Conclusion
DFS blends fantasy strategy with the thrill of competition and is legal in most states.
What is a dime?
A dime is betting slang for $1,000. When someone says they bet "a dime" on a game, they wagered $1,000.
Common Betting Denominations
| Term | Amount | |------|--------| | Nickel | $500 | | Dime | $1,000 | | Dollar | $100 | | Buck | $100 | | Dime line | 10 cents of juice |
Usage
- "I put a dime on the Chiefs" = $1,000 bet
- "He's a dime bettor" = Someone who regularly bets $1,000
The terminology comes from the gambling world where large amounts are discussed casually without drawing attention.
What is dog (underdog)?
The team expected to lose.
What is a dollar in betting?
In sports betting slang, a "dollar" refers to $100, not $1. This terminology can confuse newcomers but is standard in betting circles.
Betting Slang for Money
| Term | Actual Amount | |------|---------------| | Dollar/Buck | $100 | | Nickel | $500 | | Dime | $1,000 | | Quarter | $25 |
Why This Terminology Exists
The inflated terms developed in illegal betting circles where:
- Large amounts were discussed in code
- Bettors didn't want to announce actual stakes
- Shorthand made communication faster
When someone says "I bet 5 dollars," they typically mean $500.
What is an edge?
An edge is any advantage a bettor has over the sportsbook. Professional bettors survive by consistently finding edges—situations where the true probability differs from what the odds imply.
Types of Edges
- Mathematical edge: When true probability exceeds implied probability
- Information edge: Knowing something the market hasn't priced in
- Speed edge: Acting on information before lines move
- Model edge: Superior predictive models
Calculating Your Edge
Edge = (Your estimated probability × Decimal odds) - 1
Example:
- Your probability: 55%
- Odds offered: +110 (2.10 decimal)
- Edge: (0.55 × 2.10) - 1 = 0.155 or 15.5%
Reality Check
True edges are small (2-5%) and hard to find. If you think you have a big edge, double-check your analysis.
What is even money?
Even money means a bet pays 1:1—you win the same amount you risk. It's displayed as +100 in American odds, 2.00 in decimal odds, or 1/1 in fractional odds.
Example
- Bet $100 at even money (+100)
- If you win: Get $100 profit + $100 stake back = $200 total
- If you lose: Lose $100
When You See Even Money
- Pick'em games where neither team is favored
- Reduced juice promotions
- True 50/50 propositions
- Special boosts from sportsbooks
The Reality
True even money bets are rare. Sportsbooks typically charge juice (-110 on both sides), meaning you need to win more than 50% to profit.
What is exposure?
Exposure is the maximum amount a sportsbook or bettor stands to lose on a particular outcome. Managing exposure is crucial for risk management.
Sportsbook Exposure
Books track their exposure on each side:
- One-sided action: Heavy bets on one team create exposure
- Balanced book: Equal action on both sides minimizes risk
- Layoff bets: Books may bet with other books to reduce exposure
Bettor Exposure
For bettors, exposure means:
- Total amount at risk across all pending bets
- Risk on correlated outcomes (multiple bets affected by same result)
- Potential liability on futures and parlays
Managing Exposure
Smart bettors and books limit exposure to any single event. Never risk more than you can afford to lose on any outcome.
What is fade?
Betting against a specific side or bettor.
What are first half bets?
First half bets (1H) are wagers on the outcome of only the first half of a game. You can bet the spread, moneyline, or total for just the first 30 minutes (football), first two quarters (basketball), or first 4.5 innings (baseball).
First Half Betting Lines
Example:
- Full game: Chiefs -7 (-110)
- First half: Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
- 1H total: Over 24.5 (-110)
Strategies
- Fast starters: Some teams consistently lead at halftime
- Slow starters: Teams that trail early but rally late
- Coaching tendencies: Some coaches script opening drives
- Avoid second-half variance: Remove uncertainty from final 30 minutes
First half bets let you double your action per game or hedge full-game positions.
What is flat betting?
Flat betting means wagering the same amount on every bet regardless of confidence level. It's a conservative bankroll management strategy that prevents big losses and emotional betting.
How It Works
- Set your unit size (typically 1-2% of bankroll)
- Bet one unit on every play
- No increasing bets on "locks" or decreasing on uncertain plays
Advantages
- Protects bankroll: No single bet can devastate you
- Removes emotion: Can't chase losses with bigger bets
- Easy to track: Simple ROI calculation
- Sustainable: Built for long-term betting
Flat Betting vs. Varying Stakes
Some sharp bettors vary stakes based on edge size, but this requires:
- Accurate probability assessment
- Discipline to stick to the system
- Large sample size to be effective
For most bettors, flat betting is the safer choice.
What are futures bets?
Futures are bets placed on events that will be decided well into the future, like championship winners or season awards.
Examples
Common futures include betting on the next Super Bowl winner or league MVP before or during the season.
Conclusion
Futures bets offer big payouts and long-term excitement, but they tie up your bankroll for extended periods.
What is the Grand Salami?
The Grand Salami is a single bet on the total combined runs (MLB) or goals (NHL) scored across all games on a given day. It's an all-or-nothing wager that aggregates scoring across the entire league slate.
Example (MLB)
- 15 games on the schedule
- Grand Salami line: Over/Under 124.5 total runs
- If total runs across all 15 games exceed 124.5, Over wins
Strategy Considerations
- Weather affects multiple outdoor games
- Day games vs. night games
- Pitching matchups across the slate
- Historical averages for the day of week
Why Bettors Like It
- Single bet covers entire day's action
- Reduces variance of individual game outcomes
- Can find value when multiple games trend one direction
- Unique betting experience
What is a grinder?
A grinder is a bettor who makes consistent small profits through disciplined betting, high volume, and careful bankroll management. Rather than swinging for big scores, grinders steadily accumulate wins.
Grinder Characteristics
- Bets small, consistent units
- Seeks small edges (2-5%)
- Places high volume of bets
- Tracks every wager meticulously
- Manages bankroll conservatively
- Patient through variance
Grinder Math
- 1,000 bets per year
- 53% win rate at -110
- Small profit per bet, but consistent
- Compound gains over time
Grinding vs. Gambling
Grinders treat betting as a business, not entertainment. They accept that most individual bets are boring and focus on long-term profitability over excitement.
What is a handicapper?
A handicapper is someone who analyzes sporting events to predict outcomes and identify betting value. Professional handicappers may sell their picks or work for sportsbooks to set lines.
Types of Handicappers
- Independent handicappers: Sell picks to the public
- Syndicate handicappers: Work with betting groups
- Sportsbook handicappers: Set and adjust betting lines
- Media handicappers: Provide analysis without selling picks
Evaluating Handicappers
Be cautious of pick sellers. Look for:
- Verified, long-term track record
- Transparent unit sizing and ROI
- Honest about variance and losing streaks
- No "guaranteed winners" claims
Reality Check
Most paid handicappers don't outperform what you could achieve with your own research. The best often work for sportsbooks or betting syndicates, not selling $50 picks.
What is handle?
Total money bet on an event.
What is hedge?
Placing a bet against your original position to lock in profit or minimize loss.
What is hold?
Hold is the percentage of money wagered that a sportsbook keeps as profit. It represents the actual margin the book earns after all bets are settled.
Hold vs. Vig
- Vig (theoretical): The built-in margin in the odds (typically 4.5-10%)
- Hold (actual): What the book actually keeps after settling bets
Example
A sportsbook takes $110,000 in bets on a game:
- $60,000 on Team A
- $50,000 on Team B
- If Team A wins, book pays $54,545 (keeps $55,455)
- Hold = 5.4%
Why Hold Varies
- Balanced action reduces hold to the vig
- One-sided action can increase or eliminate hold
- Sharp betting can create negative hold (book loses)
- Promotions and boosts reduce hold
Books aim for consistent hold around their theoretical vig margin.
What is the hook?
The hook refers to the half-point in a point spread. When a team is -3.5 instead of -3, that extra half-point is "the hook." It eliminates the possibility of a push.
Why the Hook Matters
Without the hook (-3):
- If the favorite wins by exactly 3, it's a push
- Stake returned to both sides
With the hook (-3.5):
- Favorite wins by 3 = underdog covers
- No push possible
Key Number Hooks
The hook is most valuable around key numbers in football:
- Getting +3.5 vs +3 is significant
- Moving from -7 to -7.5 hurts
- Games frequently land on 3 and 7
"Getting the Hook"
Bettors who get +3.5 instead of +3 on a game that lands on 3 "got the hook"—it made the difference between winning and pushing.
What is implied probability?
Implied probability is the conversion of odds into a percentage chance. For example, -110 odds imply a 52.4% chance of winning.
Why it matters
Comparing implied probability to your own projections helps find value and +EV bets.
Conclusion
Use implied probability to judge whether a line is fair or skewed by sportsbook vig.
What is juice (VIG)?
"Juice," or the vig, refers to skew that oddsmakers put on bets to ensure that they take home a profit in the long run. That's where the term "The house always wins" comes from.
Understanding Juice
The easiest way to think of the vig is that it is a tax for every wager you place. A more mathematical explanation is that it is the sum of probabilities exceeding 100 percent including all available betting options in a market.
Bets with -110 odds have a 52.4 percent implied chance of hitting. Since sportsbooks set most two-way markets at -110/-110 odds, there is an implied 104.8 percent chance of either event occurring, even though there can never truly be more than a 100 percent chance of an event happening. That extra 4.8 percent, in this case, is the juice.
What is juiced line?
A line with heavy vig (e.g., -120/-110 instead of -110/-110).
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal size of a bet based on your edge and the odds offered.
Formula
(bp - q) / b, where b = odds in decimal - 1, p = win probability, q = loss probability.
Conclusion
Kelly avoids overbetting and bankroll depletion but relies on accurate edge estimation.
What are key numbers?
Key numbers are the most common margins of victory in football, making them crucial reference points for spread betting. The most important key numbers are 3 and 7.
NFL Key Number Frequency
| Number | % of Games | Significance | |--------|------------|--------------| | 3 | ~15% | Field goal margin | | 7 | ~9% | Touchdown margin | | 6 | ~6% | Two field goals | | 10 | ~6% | TD + FG | | 14 | ~5% | Two touchdowns |
Why Key Numbers Matter
- Getting +3 instead of +2.5 is valuable
- Paying to move off 3 or 7 can be profitable
- Line movement through key numbers is significant
In Other Sports
- NBA: Less defined due to higher scoring variance
- MLB: 1 run is a key number (run line)
- NHL: 1 goal matters for puck line
Always shop for better numbers around key values.
What is a layoff?
A layoff is when a sportsbook places a bet with another sportsbook to reduce their risk on a particular outcome. It's how books manage one-sided action and limit exposure.
How Layoffs Work
Scenario:
- Book A has $500,000 on Chiefs -3
- Only $200,000 on Bills +3
- Book A is exposed if Chiefs cover
Solution:
- Book A bets $150,000 on Chiefs -3 at Book B
- This balances their exposure
Why Books Lay Off Bets
- Heavy one-sided public action
- Large sharp bets they can't balance
- Limit exposure on major events
- Risk management on parlays and futures
Bettor Implications
Layoff activity between books can move lines across the market. When you see multiple books move simultaneously, layoffs may be occurring.
What is limit?
Max bet allowed by the sportsbook.
What is line shopping?
Line shopping is the practice of checking multiple sportsbooks for the best odds before placing a bet.
Line shopping increases profits over time by ensuring you get the most favorable odds.
Example
Instead of betting a team at -120, finding it at -110 elsewhere improves ROI.
Conclusion
Smart bettors always compare lines across books before placing a wager.
What is live betting?
Live betting is exactly what it sounds like—betting when a game or event is in progress.
The general structure of the odds will look exactly the same as it did before the event began, but odds will constantly change to represent what is happening during the event. If a team is favored by 7.5 points but they're losing by three at halftime, then they might only be a 1.5-point favorite according to the live odds.
Conclusion
Live betting can be a way for savvy bettors to maximize their profit if they feel that they have a strong grasp of what is going on and what will come. It's important to remember not to chase losses by throwing down a ton of live bets and trying to recoup money lost earlier in the day.
What is a lock?
A "lock" is supposedly a guaranteed winning bet—one that can't lose. In reality, locks don't exist. The term is often used by overconfident bettors or unscrupulous touts selling picks.
The Problem with Locks
- Upsets happen constantly in sports
- Even 90%+ probability events lose sometimes
- Overconfidence leads to overbetting
- "Lock of the week" is a marketing gimmick
Examples of "Locks" That Lost
- 2007 Patriots (18-0) losing the Super Bowl
- 1-16 seeds beating 16-1 seeds in March Madness
- Heavy favorites getting upset weekly
Red Flags
Anyone selling "guaranteed winners" or "locks" should be avoided. Professional bettors speak in probabilities, not certainties. If it were truly a lock, they'd bet it themselves instead of selling it.
What is a longshot?
A longshot is a bet on an outcome with a low probability of occurring, typically at odds of +500 or higher. These bets offer large payouts but win infrequently.
Longshot Examples
- Futures: Cleveland Browns to win Super Bowl (+8000)
- Props: Backup QB to throw 3+ TDs (+2500)
- Live betting: Team down 21-0 to win (+1200)
- Parlays: 6+ leg parlays are essentially longshots
The Longshot Bias
Studies show bettors overvalue longshots:
- The dream of a big payout is attractive
- Books add extra margin to longshot odds
- True probability is often lower than implied
When Longshots Make Sense
- Small stakes for entertainment
- Genuinely mispriced by the market
- Hedging futures that have gained value
- Part of a diversified betting portfolio
Don't make longshots your primary strategy.
What is the Martingale system?
The Martingale system assumes you'll eventually win and recover losses by doubling the stake after each loss.
Risk
A long losing streak can quickly wipe out your bankroll or hit betting limits.
Conclusion
It's a risky system that can lead to massive losses despite its simplicity.
What is a middle?
A middle opportunity occurs when you can bet both sides of a game at different numbers, creating a window where both bets win. It's a low-risk strategy when lines move significantly.
How Middles Work
Monday: Bet Chiefs -3 (-110) Thursday: Line moves to Chiefs -6 Bet: Bills +6 (-110)
Outcomes:
- Chiefs win by 4 or 5: Both bets win (middle hit!)
- Chiefs win by 6: Push one, win one
- Chiefs win by 1-3: Lose -3, win +6 (small profit)
- Chiefs win by 7+: Win -3, lose +6 (small loss)
- Bills win: Win +6, lose -3 (small profit)
Why Middles Are Valuable
- Limited downside (lose juice on both)
- Potential to win both bets
- Exploit line movement from sharp action
Finding Middles
Track opening lines and monitor movement. Use Fantasy Optimizer to spot line discrepancies across books.
What is the moneyline?
The moneyline only deals with the winner of a game or event. Teams or individuals do not need to win by a certain amount as they do in spread bets, and what happens during the event does not matter. Think of the moneyline as the simplest form of betting. It is a straight-up wager on which team or individual will finish on top.
What is a nickel?
A nickel is betting slang for $500. When someone says they bet "a nickel" on a game, they wagered $500.
Common Betting Denominations
| Term | Amount | |------|--------| | Dollar/Buck | $100 | | Nickel | $500 | | Dime | $1,000 | | Quarter | $25 |
Usage Examples
- "Put a nickel on the over" = $500 bet on the over
- "Nickel bettor" = Someone who regularly bets $500
- "Won a nickel tonight" = Won $500
"Nickel Line"
Separately, a "nickel line" refers to reduced juice where the vig is only 5 cents (paying -105 instead of -110). This is different from the $500 meaning.
What are American and Decimal odds?
Odds indicate how much you can win on a bet and come in formats like American (+150) and Decimal (2.50).
Formats
American odds show profit per $100 bet (+150 means $150 profit). Decimal odds show total return per $1 bet (2.50 means $1 becomes $2.50).
Conclusion
Understanding both formats is key when using international sportsbooks or comparing lines.
What does off the board mean?
When a game is "off the board" (OTB), the sportsbook has temporarily removed all betting lines. No bets can be placed until the book puts the lines back up.
Why Games Go Off the Board
- Injury news: Key player's status uncertain
- Weather: Severe weather developing
- Breaking news: Trades, suspensions, personal issues
- Sharp action: Large bets creating uncertainty
- Technical issues: Line-setting problems
How Long Games Stay OTB
- Minutes to hours typically
- Until uncertainty is resolved
- Lines return with adjusted numbers
What to Do
- Monitor injury reports and news
- Be ready to bet when lines return
- The new line often moves significantly
- Early action on returning lines can have value
Games going OTB often signal important information the market is processing.
What is the opening line?
The opening line (or opener) is the first betting line released by a sportsbook for an event. It represents the bookmaker's initial assessment before any betting action.
Why Opening Lines Matter
- Sharp bettors target mispriced openers
- Getting the best number often means betting early
- Line movement from open to close indicates market opinion
- Closing Line Value (CLV) compares your bet to the closer
Who Sets Opening Lines
Market-making books like Pinnacle or Circa often post first. Other books then copy or adjust these numbers based on their own models and risk tolerance.
Opening Line Strategy
- Bet early: If you have strong analysis, act before the line moves
- Wait for movement: Let sharps move the line, then take the other side
- Track openers: Compare to closing lines to identify value
Use Sharp Money to track line movement from open to close.
What are opening and closing line values?
The opening line is the odds of an event when they are first posted. The closing line is the final odds value before the event starts.
Example
If the New York Knicks are -4.5 (-115) when the odds are first posted, the opening line is 4.5. If they close as -5.5 (-110) favorites just before the event begins, the closing value is 5.5. Opening line and closing line can also represent odds values rather than point spreads. Using the same example, if the Knicks open at -200 on the moneyline and close at -220, the line moved 20 points in value. Closing line value reflects the value a bettor obtained when they placed the bet relative to what it closed at. If they got the Knicks at -205 shortly after opening, then they got 15 points in the closing line value.
Conclusion
Obtaining positive closing line value tends to be more profitable long-term, though it does not guarantee wins.
What is an outright bet?
An outright bet (also called an "outright winner" bet) is a wager on who will win an entire competition, tournament, or championship—not just a single game.
Outright Examples
- NFL: Which team wins the Super Bowl
- Golf: Who wins The Masters
- Soccer: Premier League champion
- Tennis: US Open winner
- NCAA: March Madness champion
Characteristics
- Placed before or during the event
- Odds change based on results
- Typically futures-style bets
- Can offer significant value early
Outright Strategy
- Bet early for best odds (before favorites emerge)
- Hedge when your pick advances
- Look for value on overlooked contenders
- Consider each-way bets in golf (top 5/10 finish)
Outrights tie up your money for the duration of the competition but can offer excellent payouts.
What are parlay bets?
Parlay bets include a combination of picks picked by the user and combined into one large wager. Every pick included in a parlay is known as a leg. If any leg in the parlay loses, then the entire parlay is graded as a loss—regardless of how many picks were correct. The more legs on a parlay, the higher the potential payout, as well as the higher likelihood that the bet does not hit.
Conclusion
Parlays with lots of legs are a favorite of casual bettors, but they are much harder to win than typical straight bets and usually result in more winnings for the house.
What is a pick'em?
A pick'em (or pick, PK) is a game where neither team is favored—the spread is zero. You simply pick which team wins. Both sides typically have the same odds.
How Pick'ems Display
Chiefs PK (-110)
Raiders PK (-110)
Or sometimes:
Chiefs +0 (-110)
Raiders +0 (-110)
Pick'em vs. Moneyline
Pick'em: Spread is 0, push if game ties (rare in NFL) Moneyline: Pure win/lose, overtime counts
In most cases, pick'em and moneyline are essentially the same bet.
When Pick'ems Occur
- Evenly matched teams
- Neutral site games
- Playoff matchups between equals
- Home field exactly offsets talent difference
Pick'ems indicate the oddsmakers see a true toss-up game.
What are player prop bets?
Player props allow you to bet on individual player performances within a game, such as touchdowns, rushing yards, or total points scored. These bets are popular for fans who follow specific athletes closely.
Examples
You might bet on LeBron James to score over 28.5 points, or Patrick Mahomes to throw for more than 275.5 yards. These wagers are based on statistical achievements rather than who wins or loses the game.
Conclusion
Player props are an exciting way to engage with your favorite athletes and can offer valuable edges when you have strong knowledge of player tendencies and matchups.
What is the point spread?
The point spread expresses the perceived difference in ability between two teams with a number. For example, if the oddsmakers believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Arizona Cardinals by six points, then the spread will be six points in the Steelers' favor (written as Steelers -6). Spreads can be half or whole numbers.
Determining Outcomes
To win a spread bet (known as covering), a team must perform better than the expected difference between the teams. Using the same example, the Cardinals may cover the spread by losing by five or fewer points, tying, or winning outright. The Steelers must win by more than six points to cover, and a six-point Steelers win would result in a push (when bettors are refunded their stake).
What is the points total (over/under)?
The points total betting market has two sides: the over and the under. These bets prompt bettors to choose if there will be more or less than a projected number of total points. Note that the point projection is the sum of every team and individual that takes part in the event.
Determining Outcomes
If a bettor picks an NBA matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics to go over the total of 227.5 points, then the two teams must combine to score 228 or more points to win the bet. 227 or fewer points will result in a win for "under" bettors.
What is positive EV in sports betting?
Positive EV is short for positive expected value. This term applies to bets that have a greater probability than what is implied by the sportsbook's odds. Positive EV betting is the most consistent way to make long-term profit. Essentially, the better assumes the margin regularly imposed by the sportsbooks. Sportsbooks try to limit all opportunities for EV sports betting, meaning the bettor must be selective with their bets.
Positive EV at Monster.Bet
At Monster.Bet, our picks incorporate positive EV to help identify our best bets. Here's an example of positive EV betting in action. Pretend that the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles are both -110 on the moneyline against one another. -110 odds imply a 52.4 percent chance, meaning that both teams are projected to win 52.4 percent of the time.
If a bettor decides (usually through modeling) that the Orioles actually have a 55 percent chance to win, then they have identified a positive EV bet. From there, they'll want to line shop to find the best odds for the bet and then place their wager.
What is public side?
A team or bet heavily favored by the public.
What is the puck line?
The puck line is hockey's version of the point spread. Unlike football and basketball spreads that vary, the puck line is almost always set at 1.5 goals.
How the Puck Line Works
Bruins -1.5 (+150)
Senators +1.5 (-180)
- Bruins -1.5: Must win by 2+ goals
- Senators +1.5: Can lose by 1 goal or win
Puck Line vs. Moneyline
Because hockey is low-scoring, the moneyline is more popular:
- Favorites rarely cover -1.5 (many 1-goal games)
- Puck line favorites offer plus-money
- Underdogs laying -1.5 pay reduced juice
Strategy
- Bet puck line favorites when expecting a blowout
- Moneyline is safer for tight games
- Consider empty-net goal scenarios (late game +1.5 becomes riskier)
- Live betting puck lines shifts significantly
What is push?
Tie or exact match to spread/total = bet refunded.
What is reduced juice?
Reduced juice (or reduced vig) means a sportsbook charges less commission on bets. Instead of standard -110 odds, you might get -105 or even -102.
Impact on Profitability
| Odds | Break-Even Win % | Savings per $100 | |------|------------------|------------------| | -110 | 52.38% | Standard | | -108 | 51.92% | ~$2 | | -105 | 51.22% | ~$5 | | -102 | 50.49% | ~$8 |
Where to Find Reduced Juice
- Pinnacle (typically -104 to -105)
- Circa (often -107 to -108)
- BetCRIS and sharp-friendly books
- Special promotions at mainstream books
Why It Matters
Over 1,000 bets at -110 vs -105:
- At -110: Need 524 wins to break even
- At -105: Need 512 wins to break even
That 12-bet difference compounds into significant profit over time. Always shop for the best juice.
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement (RLM) occurs when a betting line moves in the opposite direction of where the majority of bets are placed. It's a strong indicator of sharp (professional) action.
Example
- 75% of bets on Chiefs -3
- Line moves from Chiefs -3 to Chiefs -2.5
Why? Despite more bets on Chiefs, the line moved toward the Raiders. This means larger, sharper bets came in on the Raiders.
Why RLM Matters
Books respect sharp money more than public money. When they move lines against public consensus, they're:
- Protecting against informed bettors
- Following the "smart money"
- Reducing their exposure to sharps
How to Use RLM
- Track betting percentages AND line movement
- Look for divergence between the two
- Consider following the line movement direction
- Use Sharp Money to identify RLM in real-time
RLM isn't foolproof, but it's one of the best public indicators of professional betting activity.
What is ROI in betting?
ROI (Return on Investment) measures your profit as a percentage of total money wagered. It's the most important metric for evaluating betting performance.
Calculating ROI
Formula: ROI = (Profit / Total Wagered) × 100
Example:
- Total wagered: $10,000
- Total returned: $10,500
- Profit: $500
- ROI: ($500 / $10,000) × 100 = 5%
What's a Good ROI?
| ROI | Assessment | |-----|------------| | 1-3% | Solid, sustainable | | 3-5% | Very good | | 5-10% | Elite level | | 10%+ | Unsustainable (lucky or small sample) |
ROI vs. Win Percentage
A 55% win rate at -110 odds = ~5% ROI A 53% win rate at -105 odds = ~3% ROI
Win percentage alone doesn't account for odds. ROI tells the complete story.
Sample Size Matters
Short-term ROI is meaningless due to variance. Track over 500+ bets minimum for reliable data.
What is the run line?
The run line is baseball's equivalent of a point spread, almost always set at 1.5 runs. The favorite must win by 2+ runs, while the underdog can lose by 1 or win outright.
Standard Run Line
Yankees -1.5 (+130)
Red Sox +1.5 (-150)
- Yankees -1.5: Must win by 2+ runs
- Red Sox +1.5: Can lose by 1 run or win
Run Line vs. Moneyline
About 30% of MLB games are decided by exactly 1 run, making the run line significantly different from the moneyline.
When to bet run line favorites:
- Strong pitching matchup advantage
- Weak opposing bullpen
- High-powered offense vs. weak pitching
When to bet run line underdogs:
- Underdog has quality starting pitcher
- Evenly matched teams
- Close divisional games
Alternate Run Lines
Some books offer -2.5 or +2.5 run lines with adjusted odds for stronger convictions.
What is a same game parlay?
A same game parlay (SGP) combines multiple bets from a single game into one wager. All selections must win for the parlay to pay. Odds are adjusted for correlation between outcomes.
SGP Example
Game: Chiefs vs. Bills
- Chiefs moneyline
- Patrick Mahomes over 275 passing yards
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
- Under 52.5 total
All four must hit to win.
Correlation Adjustments
Unlike standard parlays, SGP odds account for correlation:
- QB over yards + team win = positively correlated
- Team blowout + under total = negatively correlated
The book reduces payouts when outcomes are linked.
SGP Strategy
- Look for logical combinations
- Don't over-leg (3-4 selections max)
- Understand correlation affects pricing
- Use for entertainment, not primary strategy
Where to Bet SGPs
Most major sportsbooks offer SGPs: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars. Odds and availability vary by book.
What is scalping?
Scalping (also called arbing or arbitrage betting) involves betting both sides of an event at different sportsbooks to guarantee a profit regardless of outcome.
How Scalping Works
Book A: Chiefs +150 Book B: Bills +150
If you bet $100 on each side:
- Either outcome wins $150, loses $100
- Net profit: $50 guaranteed
Finding Scalps
Scalping opportunities exist when:
- Books disagree significantly on odds
- Lines haven't been updated after news
- Different books have different liability
Challenges
- Opportunities are rare and small
- Requires accounts at many books
- Books limit or ban winning scalpers
- Odds change quickly
- Requires significant capital
Tools
Use Arbitrage to automatically identify scalping opportunities across sportsbooks in real-time.
What is sharp money?
Sharp money refers to wagers placed by professional or highly skilled bettors. Sportsbooks respect sharp action and adjust lines based on it, regardless of bet count.
Sharps vs. Squares
| Sharps | Squares | |--------|---------| | Professional bettors | Recreational bettors | | Data-driven decisions | Emotion-driven decisions | | Move lines | Follow lines | | Bet early for best numbers | Bet late, often worse numbers | | Large, strategic bets | Smaller, frequent bets |
How to Identify Sharp Money
- Reverse line movement (line moves against public)
- Steam moves (sudden, significant line changes)
- Early money at market-making books
- Line moves without news
Following Sharp Money
While following sharps has value, remember:
- By the time you see it, the line has moved
- Sharps get better numbers than you
- Sharp consensus isn't always right
Use Sharp Money to track professional betting activity.
What is sharps?
Pro or experienced bettors.
What is steam?
Rapid line movement due to heavy sharp action.
What is unit?
A standardized bet size (e.g., 1 unit = $100 for you).
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