Terminology

The moneyline only deals with the winner of a game or event. Teams or individuals do not need to win by a certain amount as they do in spread bets, and what happens during the event does not matter.Think of the moneyline as the simplest form of betting. It is a straight-up wager on which team or individual will finish on top.

The point spread expresses the perceived difference in ability between two teams with a number. For example, if the oddsmakers believe that the Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Arizona Cardinals by six points, then the spread will be six points in the Steelers’ favor (written as Steelers -6). Spreads can be half or whole numbers.

Determining Outcomes

To win a spread bet (known as covering), a team must perform better than the expected difference between the teams.Using the same example, the Cardinals may cover the spread by losing by five or fewer points, tying, or winning outright. The Steelers must win by more than six points to cover, and a six-point Steelers win would result in a push (when bettors are refunded their stake).

The points total betting market has two sides: the over and the under. These bets prompt bettors to choose if there will be more or less than a projected number of total points. Note that the point projection is the sum of every team and individual that takes part in the event.

Determining Outcomes

If a bettor picks an NBA matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics to go over the total of 227.5 points, then the two teams must combine to score 228 or more points to win the bet. 227 or fewer points will result in a win for “under” bettors.

Player props allow you to bet on individual player performances within a game, such as touchdowns, rushing yards, or total points scored. These bets are popular for fans who follow specific athletes closely.

Examples

You might bet on LeBron James to score over 28.5 points, or Patrick Mahomes to throw for more than 275.5 yards. These wagers are based on statistical achievements rather than who wins or loses the game.

Conclusion

Player props are an exciting way to engage with your favorite athletes and can offer valuable edges when you have strong knowledge of player tendencies and matchups.

Parlay bets include a combination of picks picked by the user and combined into one large wager. Every pick included in a parlay is known as a leg. If any leg in the parlay loses, then the entire parlay is graded as a loss—regardless of how many picks were correct. The more legs on a parlay, the higher the potential payout, as well as the higher likelihood that the bet does not hit.

Conclusion

Parlays with lots of legs are a favorite of casual bettors, but they are much harder to win than typical straight bets and usually result in more winnings for the house.

DFS, or Daily Fantasy Sports, are contests where players build a fantasy team of real-world athletes and compete based on those players' statistical performances in actual games.

How it works

Players enter paid or free contests, draft teams under a salary cap, and earn points based on player stats. The highest-scoring entries win prizes.

Conclusion

DFS blends fantasy strategy with the thrill of competition and is legal in most states.

Teaser bets are essentially parlays of alternate lines, most commonly seen with spread bets. Bettors can choose how many picks they add to a teaser bet, and how many points they move the line. Every pick/point combination has a prescribed odds value regardless of which picks are included in the teaser.

Example

Let’s look at an NFL teaser bet as an example. Say that these are the teams that we want to include in our teaser, along with their corresponding spread values.

• Washington Commanders -3.5
• Baltimore Ravens -7
• Cleveland Browns +4.5

A six-point teaser would lessen all of these spreads by six points. That means the new values would become:

• Washington Commanders +2.5
• Baltimore Ravens -1
• Cleveland Browns +10.5

A three-leg, six-point teaser comes with an odds value of +160.  A four-leg, 13-point teaser has odds of -140. Again, it is up to the bettor to choose how many legs and points they want to add to the teaser.

Conclusion

Just like in parlays, every leg of a teaser must hit for the bet to cash. A rule of thumb is to avoid crossing a teaser past the zero-point line if possible since that’s essentially paying for a number that doesn’t exist in 99 percent of outcomes.

Futures are bets placed on events that will be decided well into the future, like championship winners or season awards.

Examples

Common futures include betting on the next Super Bowl winner or league MVP before or during the season.

Conclusion

Futures bets offer big payouts and long-term excitement, but they tie up your bankroll for extended periods.

Live betting is exactly what it sounds like—betting when a game or event is in progress.

The general structure of the odds will look exactly the same as it did before the event began, but odds will constantly change to represent what is happening during the event. If a team is favored by 7.5 points but they’re losing by three at halftime, then they might only be a 1.5-point favorite according to the live odds.

Conclusion

Live betting can be a way for savvy bettors to maximize their profit if they feel that they have a strong grasp of what is going on and what will come. It’s important to remember not to chase losses by throwing down a ton of live bets and trying to recoup money lost earlier in the day.

Odds indicate how much you can win on a bet and come in formats like American (+150) and Decimal (2.50).

Formats

American odds show profit per $100 bet (+150 means $150 profit). Decimal odds show total return per $1 bet (2.50 means $1 becomes $2.50).

Conclusion

Understanding both formats is key when using international sportsbooks or comparing lines.

Implied probability is the conversion of odds into a percentage chance. For example, -110 odds imply a 52.4% chance of winning.

Why it matters

Comparing implied probability to your own projections helps find value and +EV bets.

Conclusion

Use implied probability to judge whether a line is fair or skewed by sportsbook vig.

“Juice,” or the vig, refers to skew that oddsmakers put on bets to ensure that they take home a profit in the long run. That’s where the term “The house always wins” comes from.

Understanding Juice

The easiest way to think of the vig is that it is a tax for every wager you place. A more mathematical explanation is that it is the sum of probabilities exceeding 100 percent including all available betting options in a market.

Bets with -110 odds have a 52.4 percent implied chance of hitting. Since sportsbooks set most two-way markets at -110/-110 odds, there is an implied 104.8 percent chance of either event occurring, even though there can never truly be more than a 100 percent chance of an event happening. That extra 4.8 percent, in this case, is the juice.

Beat the spread (e.g., win by more than the point spread).

A loss in a game you looked likely to win.

Tie or exact match to spread/total = bet refunded.

A standardized bet size (e.g., 1 unit = $100 for you).

Total money set aside for betting.

The favorite.

The team expected to lose.

A team or bet heavily favored by the public.

Pro or experienced bettors.

Rapid line movement due to heavy sharp action.

Total money bet on an event.

Max bet allowed by the sportsbook.

Placing a bet against your original position to lock in profit or minimize loss.

Betting against a specific side or bettor.

A line with heavy vig (e.g., -120/-110 instead of -110/-110).

Positive EV is short for positive expected value. This term applies to bets that have a greater probability than what is implied by the sportsbook’s odds. Positive EV betting is the most consistent way to make long-term profit. Essentially, the better assumes the margin regularly imposed by the sportsbooks.Sportsbooks try to limit all opportunities for EV sports betting, meaning the bettor must be selective with their bets.

Positive EV at Monster.Bet

At Monster.Bet, our picks incorporate positive EV to help identify our best bets. Here’s an example of positive EV betting in action. Pretend that the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles are both -110 on the moneyline against one another. -110 odds imply a 52.4 percent chance, meaning that both teams are projected to win 52.4 percent of the time.

If a bettor decides (usually through modeling) that the Orioles actually have a 55 percent chance to win, then they have identified a positive EV bet. From there, they’ll want to line shop to find the best odds for the bet and then place their wager.

The opening line is the odds of an event when they are first posted. The closing line is the final odds value before the event starts.

Example

If the New York Knicks are -4.5 (-115) when the odds are first posted, the opening line is 4.5. If they close as -5.5 (-110) favorites just before the event begins, the closing value is 5.5.Opening line and closing line can also represent odds values rather than point spreads. Using the same example, if the Knicks open at -200 on the moneyline and close at -220, the line moved 20 points in value. Closing line value reflects the value a bettor obtained when they placed the bet relative to what it closed at. If they got the Knicks at -205 shortly after opening, then they got 15 points in the closing line value.

Conclusion

Obtaining positive closing line value tends to be more profitable long-term, though it does not guarantee wins.

The Kelly Criterion calculates the optimal size of a bet based on your edge and the odds offered.

Formula

(bp - q) / b, where b = odds in decimal - 1, p = win probability, q = loss probability.

Conclusion

Kelly avoids overbetting and bankroll depletion but relies on accurate edge estimation.

The Martingale system assumes you’ll eventually win and recover losses by doubling the stake after each loss.

Risk

A long losing streak can quickly wipe out your bankroll or hit betting limits.

Conclusion

It’s a risky system that can lead to massive losses despite its simplicity.

Line shopping increases profits over time by ensuring you get the most favorable odds.

Example

Instead of betting a team at -120, finding it at -110 elsewhere improves ROI.

Conclusion

Smart bettors always compare lines across books before placing a wager.

What is arbitrage betting? We’ll answer this question in three different ways.

The Easy answer

Arbitrage betting is creating a mathematical advantage that guarantees the bettor takes home a profit no matter the outcome of an event.

The complex answer

Arbitrage betting involves hunting for opposite outcomes in the same event at multiple sportsbooks and only betting when those outcomes imply less than 100 percent probability.

The example answer

Let’s say that the San Francisco 49ers are facing the Philadelphia Eagles. DraftKings has moneyline odds of 49ers (-120) and Eagles (+100), while FanDuel has odds of 49ers (+115) and Eagles (-105).The total implied probabilities of DraftKings’ odds for the Eagles (+100) and FanDuel’s odds for the 49ers (+115) is 96.51 percent, which means that there’s a 3.49 percent margin on the 100 percent total probability that exists for every scenario. A $100 wager at +100 odds would result in a $200 payout, as would $93.02 wager at +115 odds would also pay $200. So, a bettor that wagers $193.02 would win $6.98 no matter which team wins.

Conclusion

Arbitrage betting inherently comes with lower potential profit margins, but it is a mathematically guaranteed way to win every single time.